Boom, bust, and the big picture: What history tells us about today
- Ben McNeil
- Oct 7
- 2 min read
Updated: Oct 3
Ever heard of the 18.6-year property cycle?
It’s not gospel, but it’s fascinating how this pattern keeps showing up in property markets, stretching back hundreds of years.
It’s pretty ironic, just as we reach the summit, the cracks start to show.
If you follow the property market, you’ll know every boom has its bust.
Right now, we’re at the top. The summit. The part of the cycle where everything feels unstoppable… until it isn’t.
Look at what’s happening with Latrobe Financial:
120,000 Aussies have their funds frozen - money they thought was safe, suddenly out of reach.
At the same time, the government’s new 5% deposit home ownership scheme is making headlines - no income caps, no place limits, bigger property price caps, and no Lenders Mortgage Insurance.
It sounds like a dream for first home buyers.
But when you zoom out and look at the cycle, these kinds of incentives often show up right before the market turns.
It’s classic “smoke and mirrors”, helping people get in at the top, just as the risks are highest.
Meanwhile, the world is changing at a pace we’ve never seen before:
AI is rewriting the rules - one company just hit a $4.53 trillion valuation with only 36,000 employees.
Leaders are openly saying that AI will change every job, and could replace half of all white-collar roles.
Cycles, incentives, technology, and the human stories behind them, it’s a lot to take in.
Sometimes, the best move is to pause, step back, and really look at what’s happening around us.
Are we heading for a correction, or is this time really different?
